Well, the conventions are over (thank heaven or something) Let the rank speculation begin !!!
U.S. states based on the most recent time each one helped put a Democrat in the White House. In other words: it shows which states would be the most and least likely wins for Hillary (and perhaps the most and least unlikely ones for Trump) and vice versa.
In blue are the 26 states (plus DC) who voted for Obama in 2012. They include Hawaii, the three West Coast states plus Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico, and most of the Midwest and Northeast. One could assume that these most recent Democrat-voting states are the most solidly pro-Democrat ones.
Only two states switched sides in 2012: Indiana and North Carolina (in purple) voted for the Republican Mitt Romney, whereas they had chosen Obama over McCain in 2008. A Hillary win would be less sure here.
The re-election of Bill Clinton in 1996 was the last time these eight states (in green) voted Democrat: Arizona, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, Kentucky and West Virigina. Could his wife pick up these states again after a 30-year hiatus?
In 1992, two more states (in pink) voted Hillary's husband into office: Montana and Georgia (in pink).
We have to go back forty years for Jimmy Carter, the previous Democrat, to be elected president. And 1976 was also the last year that Texas, Mississippi, Alabama and South Carolina (in orange) voted a Democrat into the White House.
And it's more than half a century ago – 1964, to be precise – since the remaining nine states (in red: Alaska, Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, North and South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas and Oklahoma) helped a Democrat gain the nation's highest office – Lyndon B. Johnson, who had taken over the office after JFK's assassination a year earlier.